Presentation to the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia, October 14, 2005
On October 14, 2005, Warren Mitofsky and I were the guest speakers of the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia Fall Meeting
My talk was entitled, "Polling Bias or Electoral Fraud? An Examination of State-Level Discrepancies Between the Official Count and Exit Poll Results in the 2004 US Presidential Election" (text, slides, handout)
His was: “2004 Exit Polls: What Bloggers And Others Got Wrong”. Here are our abstracts.
Here is the text of my talk. Because I had so many fundamental assumptions to challenge and so much information to convey in a short time, I used power point slides not as replication of the text of my talk, but rather as a ticker-tape running through the presentation providing support to my points independent of what i was saying. It was a lot to take in, but my thought was that the slides could be used as a document the audience could refer to after the talk.
I also provided as a handout this tabulation on the election outcome based on exit poll Reported Voting, in other words, how random samples of 114,559 voters nationwide said said they voted for as they walked out of the voting booth.
Unfortunately, no major media reported the event. Nevertheless, the audience response was very strong. These are my notes and reflections on the event.